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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Sukhothai FC edge out Port FC 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sukhothai FC beat Port FC 3-2 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.62 xG and Port FC 1.08 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sukhothai FC beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Port FC outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.98 against Port FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.87, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 49% | Draw 27% | Port FC 24%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 64%, Port FC 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Port FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Sukhothai FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm. Port FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights