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Prediction vindicated as Sukhothai FC edge out Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sukhothai FC beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-1 at Thalay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 2.02 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.80 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.95 / defence 0.92 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.72 / defence 1.42, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 63% | Draw 25% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 12%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 51%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.19 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sukhothai FC win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights