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Stalemate at Sukhothai FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sukhothai FC and Nakhon Pathom finished level at 0-0 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 2.00 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.32 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sukhothai FC fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Nakhon Pathom landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 1.12 / defence 1.16 against Nakhon Pathom attack 0.94 / defence 1.04, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 53% | Draw 22% | Nakhon Pathom 25%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 65%, Nakhon Pathom 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.18 PPG, Nakhon Pathom 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights