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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Lamphun Warrior defy the odds to beat Sukhothai FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lamphun Warrior beat Sukhothai FC 1-2 at Thalay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.53 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.11 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.91 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.93 / defence 1.00, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 46% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 27%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Lamphun Warrior win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 58%, Lamphun Warrior 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.21 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights