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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Sukhothai FC edge out Khon Kaen United 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sukhothai FC beat Khon Kaen United 1-0 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 2.36 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.96 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sukhothai FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Khon Kaen United landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 1.25 / defence 1.06 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.75 / defence 1.14, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 68% | Draw 20% | Khon Kaen United 13%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 67%, Khon Kaen United 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Khon Kaen United's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.18 PPG, Khon Kaen United 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sukhothai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.52 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights