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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sukhothai FC and Kanchanaburi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Thalay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Sukhothai FC and Kanchanaburi drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 2.52 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.68 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sukhothai FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.98 against Kanchanaburi attack 0.57 / defence 1.61, drawn from 39/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 76% | Draw 18% | Kanchanaburi 7%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 76%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 30%, Kanchanaburi 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Kanchanaburi's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sukhothai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.10 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kanchanaburi (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 3.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights