Sukhothai FC 1-0 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Chonburi FC travel to Thung Talay Luang Stadium to take on Sukhothai FC. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 4 April 2023, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's home record at Thung Talay Luang Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thung Talay Luang Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thung Talay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chonburi FC stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Sukhothai FC) versus 1.00 (Chonburi FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sukhothai FC, 0 for Chonburi FC and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Chonburi FC in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 46% versus Chonburi FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 42% | Chonburi FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.46 xG and Chonburi FC 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.905 / defence 1.165 | Chonburi FC attack 1.003 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.136. Data: 24 Sukhothai FC games / 54 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 40% | Draw 27% | Chonburi FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Chonburi FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sukhothai FC at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sukhothai FC 40% | Chonburi FC 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 Apr 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 40% | Draw 27% | Chonburi FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.46 / Chonburi FC 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.905 / def 1.165 | Chonburi FC attack 1.003 / def 1.191 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Chonburi FC xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 12:00 on Tuesday 4 April 2023 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC?
Sukhothai FC 1 - 0 Chonburi FC.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 40% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Chonburi FC?
Record (1 meetings): Sukhothai FC 0W | Draws 1 | Chonburi FC 0W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Chonburi FC in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Chonburi FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sukhothai FC's attack rating (0.91) and Chonburi FC's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
40%
2.52
27%
3.74
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.79
1.33
Chonburi FC xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
11%
9.51
8%
12.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.33 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 24 outings, Sukhothai FC have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 6W 8D 10L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chonburi FC's form line: 11W 4D 9L from 24 games, 1.54 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Chonburi FC are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sukhothai FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sukhothai FC have posted 1.45 PPG from 11 outings (4W 4D 3L).
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 4W 2D 5L from 11 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sukhothai FC are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.62 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Chonburi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 6W 8D 10L in their last 24 games (1.08 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 11W 4D 9L in their last 24 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Chonburi FC away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.45 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Sukhothai FC or Chonburi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Chonburi FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sukhothai FC and Chonburi FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Chonburi FC specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sukhothai FC
1
Draws
2
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Chonburi FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 3, Chonburi FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Chonburi FC 2-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Chonburi FC?
Sukhothai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 36%, Chonburi FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sukhothai FC) and 46% (Chonburi FC).
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Sukhothai FC have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Chonburi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 54% of Chonburi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 46% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sukhothai FC and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sukhothai FC edge out Chonburi FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Chonburi FC 1-0 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.46 xG and Chonburi FC 1.33 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chonburi FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.17 against Chonburi FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.19, drawn from 24/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 40% | Draw 27% | Chonburi FC 34%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 42%, Chonburi FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chonburi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Sukhothai FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.