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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Sukhothai FC edge out Chonburi FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sukhothai FC beat Chonburi FC 2-1 at Thalay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.55 xG and Chonburi FC 1.01 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.01 against Chonburi FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.09, drawn from 40/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 46% | Draw 32% | Chonburi FC 21%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 27%, Chonburi FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Chonburi FC's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.09 PPG, Chonburi FC 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sukhothai FC win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights