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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sukhothai FC and Chiangrai United share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sukhothai FC and Chiangrai United finished level at 3-3 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.89 xG and Chiangrai United 1.32 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Sukhothai FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chiangrai United outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.07 against Chiangrai United attack 0.97 / defence 1.19, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 51% | Draw 23% | Chiangrai United 26%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 66%, Chiangrai United 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Chiangrai United's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.14 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights