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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Buriram United edge out Sukhothai FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Buriram United beat Sukhothai FC 1-2 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.17 xG and Buriram United 1.91 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.11 against Buriram United attack 1.42 / defence 0.71, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 23% | Draw 23% | Buriram United 54%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 64%, Buriram United 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Buriram United's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights