Sukhothai FC 0-3 Ayutthaya FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Thung Thalay Luang Stadium plays host to Sukhothai FC versus Ayutthaya FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 1 November 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sukhothai FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sukhothai FC at Thung Thalay Luang Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ayutthaya FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ayutthaya FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Sukhothai FC 0W, Ayutthaya FC 0W, 2D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sukhothai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Ayutthaya FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 50% versus Ayutthaya FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 44% | Ayutthaya FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.59 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 1.278 / defence 1.003 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.109 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.389. Sukhothai FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — their λ of 1.59 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 36 Sukhothai FC games / 36 Ayutthaya FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 38% | Draw 26% | Ayutthaya FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Ayutthaya FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sukhothai FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 70% | Ayutthaya FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Thung Thalay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 38% | Draw 26% | Ayutthaya FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.59 / Ayutthaya FC 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 1.278 / def 1.003 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.109 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Ayutthaya FC xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Thung Thalay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Sukhothai FC 0 - 3 Ayutthaya FC.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC being played?
The match is being played at Thung Thalay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 38% chance of winning, Ayutthaya FC a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Ayutthaya FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Ayutthaya FC?
Record (2 meetings): Sukhothai FC 0W | Draws 2 | Ayutthaya FC 0W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Ayutthaya FC in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 1.28x the league average against Ayutthaya FC's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ayutthaya FC's attack (1.11x) against Sukhothai FC's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
38%
2.63
26%
3.90
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
3.13
1.54
Ayutthaya FC xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
21%
4.69
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
8%
12.31
7%
13.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Ayutthaya FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.54 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, Sukhothai FC have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 9W 10D 17L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ayutthaya FC's form line: 11W 9D 16L from 36 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Sukhothai FC against 1.17 for Ayutthaya FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sukhothai FC have posted 1.67 PPG from 18 outings (8W 6D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 8W 5D 5L from 18 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.17 PPG overall record — Ayutthaya FC travel well.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sukhothai FC are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Ayutthaya FC are on 1.19 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ayutthaya FC in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
Ayutthaya FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Ayutthaya FC in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 9W 10D 17L in their last 36 games (1.03 PPG), while Ayutthaya FC have gone 11W 9D 16L in their last 36 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Ayutthaya FC away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.67 PPG; Ayutthaya FC away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ayutthaya FC won 0-3 on 1 Nov 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sukhothai FC have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ayutthaya FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Sukhothai FC
2
Draws
1
Ayutthaya FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Ayutthaya FC?
From 3 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 0, Ayutthaya FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Ayutthaya FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Sukhothai FC 0-3 Ayutthaya FC.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Ayutthaya FC?
Ayutthaya FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 72%, Ayutthaya FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Sukhothai FC) and 44% (Ayutthaya FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Ayutthaya FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Ayutthaya FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Sukhothai FC's games and 56% of Ayutthaya FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 44% of Ayutthaya FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sukhothai FC and Ayutthaya FC tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ayutthaya FC in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ayutthaya FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sukhothai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ayutthaya FC beat Sukhothai FC 0-3 at Thung Thalay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.59 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.54 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sukhothai FC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Ayutthaya FC outscored their 1.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 1.28 / defence 1.00 against Ayutthaya FC attack 1.11 / defence 0.83, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 38% | Draw 26% | Ayutthaya FC 36%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Ayutthaya FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 44%, Ayutthaya FC 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.03 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ayutthaya FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.