Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Thalay Luang Stadium plays host to Sukhothai FC versus Ayutthaya FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Friday 30 October 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sukhothai FC have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sukhothai FC at Thalay Luang Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thalay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Ayutthaya FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Ayutthaya FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Sukhothai FC 0W, Ayutthaya FC 0W, 2D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sukhothai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Ayutthaya FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 48% versus Ayutthaya FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 39% | Ayutthaya FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.41 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.964 / defence 1.180 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.974 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.091. Data: 31 Sukhothai FC games / 31 Ayutthaya FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 40% | Draw 27% | Ayutthaya FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Ayutthaya FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sukhothai FC as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sukhothai FC 60% | Ayutthaya FC 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Thalay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 30 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 40% | Draw 27% | Ayutthaya FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.41 / Ayutthaya FC 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.964 / def 1.180 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.974 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Ayutthaya FC xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Friday 30 October 2026 at Thalay Luang Stadium.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC being played?
The match is being played at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 40% chance of winning, Ayutthaya FC a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Ayutthaya FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Ayutthaya FC?
Record (2 meetings): Sukhothai FC 0W | Draws 2 | Ayutthaya FC 0W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Ayutthaya FC in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 0.96x the league average against Ayutthaya FC's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ayutthaya FC's attack (0.97x) against Sukhothai FC's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
40%
2.50
27%
3.68
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.67
1.25
Ayutthaya FC xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
11%
8.75
8%
12.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Ayutthaya FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.25 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 31 outings, Sukhothai FC have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 6W 10D 15L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ayutthaya FC's form line: 9W 8D 14L from 31 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.90 PPG for Sukhothai FC against 1.13 for Ayutthaya FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sukhothai FC have posted 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (5W 6D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 0.90 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 6W 4D 5L from 15 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sukhothai FC are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Ayutthaya FC are on 1.16 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ayutthaya FC in 61%.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
Ayutthaya FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Ayutthaya FC in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 6W 10D 15L in their last 31 games (0.90 PPG), while Ayutthaya FC have gone 9W 8D 14L in their last 31 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Ayutthaya FC away?
Ayutthaya FC's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.40 PPG; Ayutthaya FC away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sukhothai FC
2
Draws
0
Ayutthaya FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Ayutthaya FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 0, Ayutthaya FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Ayutthaya FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Sukhothai FC 1-1 Ayutthaya FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 73%, Ayutthaya FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Sukhothai FC) and 47% (Ayutthaya FC).
On the defensive side: Ayutthaya FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Ayutthaya FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Ayutthaya FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Sukhothai FC's games and 53% of Ayutthaya FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Ayutthaya FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 47% of Ayutthaya FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sukhothai FC and Ayutthaya FC tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Ayutthaya FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.