Sisaket United vs Lamphun Warrior – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sisaket United vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 11 as Sisaket United welcome Lamphun Warrior to Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 December 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sisaket United stand at 3W 1D 3L from 7 Thai League 1 matches — 1.43 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 1.86 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sisaket United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium, Sisaket United have gone 1W 1D 2L this season (4 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lamphun Warrior — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sisaket United 1.43 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Sisaket United in-play tendencies (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sisaket United 71% and Lamphun Warrior 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sisaket United 57% | Lamphun Warrior 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sisaket United 1.00 xG and Lamphun Warrior 2.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sisaket United attack 0.929 / defence 1.307 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.169 / defence 0.748. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.436. Lamphun Warrior's defence strength of 0.748 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 7 Sisaket United games / 37 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sisaket United 16% | Draw 20% | Lamphun Warrior 64%. Fair-value odds: Sisaket United 6.25 | Draw 5.00 | Lamphun Warrior 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Lamphun Warrior (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sisaket United 75% | Lamphun Warrior 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sisaket United vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sisaket United 16% | Draw 20% | Lamphun Warrior 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 56% | xG Sisaket United 1.00 / Lamphun Warrior 2.19 • Poisson strength factors: Sisaket United attack 0.929 / def 1.307 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.169 / def 0.748 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Sisaket United xG
Expected Goals
2.19
Lamphun Warrior xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sisaket United vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Sisaket United vs Lamphun Warrior is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium.
Where is Sisaket United vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium.
What competition is Sisaket United vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Sisaket United vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sisaket United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Sisaket United a 16% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 64% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sisaket United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sisaket United and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Sisaket United vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sisaket United and Lamphun Warrior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sisaket United and Lamphun Warrior in?
Sisaket United (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.86 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sisaket United's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Lamphun Warrior's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Sisaket United's defence, projects 2.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
16%
6.25
20%
5.10
64%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Sisaket United xG
Total xG
3.19
2.19
Lamphun Warrior xG
6.25
16%
Home win
5.10
20%
Draw
1.55
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
11%
8.96
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
2%
55.98
24%
4.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sisaket United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Sisaket United and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Sisaket United and 2.19 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Sisaket United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sisaket United's recent record stands at 3W 1D 3L from 7 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sisaket United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lamphun Warrior, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 3L across 7 games — 1.43 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sisaket United on 1.43 PPG, Lamphun Warrior on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sisaket United have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.43 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Lamphun Warrior's away record stands at 2W 1D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sisaket United are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.71 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sisaket United have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sisaket United
Early Season
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sisaket United and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Sisaket United have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sisaket United at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Lamphun Warrior's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sisaket United at home: 1.00 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 1.75 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sisaket United see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sisaket United 75%, Lamphun Warrior 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sisaket United) and 50% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sisaket United home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sisaket United play Lamphun Warrior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Sisaket United's games and 50% of Lamphun Warrior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sisaket United vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sisaket United's recent games and 50% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sisaket United and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Sisaket United have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.