Rayong FC 2-1 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayong FC at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rayong FC host Uthai Thani at Rayong Provincial Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 September 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Rayong FC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Rayong FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rayong FC have posted 4W 2D 4L at Rayong Provincial Stadium — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Uthai Thani stand at 0W 6D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Uthai Thani have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
On current form, Rayong FC have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Rayong FC, 2 for Uthai Thani and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2025, ended 2–3 with Uthai Thani winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rayong FC in-play tendencies (35 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (35 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rayong FC 71% and Uthai Thani 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayong FC 66% | Uthai Thani 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 2.00 xG and Uthai Thani 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 1.068 / defence 1.034 | Uthai Thani attack 0.962 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.254. Uthai Thani bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Rayong FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Rayong FC games / 35 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayong FC 53% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 22%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Uthai Thani 4.55. Rayong FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rayong FC at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayong FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rayong FC 80% | Uthai Thani 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Rayong Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Sep 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayong FC 53% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Rayong FC 2.00 / Uthai Thani 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Rayong FC attack 1.068 / def 1.034 | Uthai Thani attack 0.962 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Rayong FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Rayong FC xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Uthai Thani xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 27 September 2025 at Rayong Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani?
Rayong FC 2 - 1 Uthai Thani.
Where is Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Rayong Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani part of?
Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Rayong FC a 53% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rayong FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Rayong FC and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Uthai Thani?
Record (2 meetings): Rayong FC 0W | Draws 0 | Uthai Thani 2W.
What form are Rayong FC and Uthai Thani in?
Rayong FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Uthai Thani (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rayong FC's attack at 1.07x the league average against Uthai Thani's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Uthai Thani's attack versus Rayong FC's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayong FC Win
53%
1.88
25%
4.02
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Rayong FC xG
Total xG
3.25
1.25
Uthai Thani xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
13%
7.41
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
3%
33.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Rayong FC and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Rayong FC and 1.25 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rayong FC's recent record stands at 9W 10D 16L from 35 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Rayong FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Uthai Thani, meanwhile, have gone 9W 12D 14L across 35 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rayong FC on 1.06 PPG, Uthai Thani on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rayong FC have managed 6W 5D 5L from 16 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Uthai Thani's away record stands at 3W 3D 10L across 16 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayong FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rayong FC are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.17 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayong FC
Early Season
Uthai Thani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayong FC and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Rayong FC have gone 9W 10D 16L in their last 35 games (1.06 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 9W 12D 14L in their last 35 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayong FC at home or Uthai Thani away?
Rayong FC's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayong FC at home: 1.44 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2026, when Uthai Thani won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rayong FC's record when hosting Uthai Thani specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Rayong FC
0
Draws
3
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Uthai Thani?
From 4 meetings on record, Rayong FC have won 1, Uthai Thani have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rayong FC and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Uthai Thani 4-1 Rayong FC.
Who has won more matches between Rayong FC and Uthai Thani?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayong FC 75%, Uthai Thani 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Rayong FC) and 44% (Uthai Thani). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Uthai Thani in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayong FC home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayong FC play Uthai Thani?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Rayong FC's games and 50% of Uthai Thani's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Rayong FC's matches and 44% of Uthai Thani's.
Do Rayong FC and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Rayong FC have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rayong FC edge out Uthai Thani 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayong FC beat Uthai Thani 2-1 at Rayong Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 2.00 xG and Uthai Thani 1.25 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.03 against Uthai Thani attack 0.96 / defence 1.26, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 53% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 22%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 66%, Uthai Thani 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayong FC's trading profile (35 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (35 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rayong FC 1.06 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayong FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.