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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Rayong FC edge out Sukhothai FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayong FC beat Sukhothai FC 2-1 at WHA Rayong Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.79 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.56 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.55 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.12, drawn from 24/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 43% | Draw 24% | Sukhothai FC 33%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 62%, Sukhothai FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayong FC's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rayong FC 0.96 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayong FC win broke the near-deadlock. Rayong FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights