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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ratchaburi cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Rayong FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ratchaburi beat Rayong FC 2-4 at Rayong Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.30 xG and Ratchaburi 1.20 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Ratchaburi outscored their 1.20 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.85 against Ratchaburi attack 1.20 / defence 0.88, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 36% | Draw 33% | Ratchaburi 31%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Ratchaburi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 58%, Ratchaburi 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayong FC's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Ratchaburi's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win. Rayong FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights