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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rayong FC and Prachuap share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Rayong Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 8, as Rayong FC and Prachuap drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.67 xG and Prachuap 1.08 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.06 against Prachuap attack 0.91 / defence 1.02, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 50% | Draw 27% | Prachuap 23%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 65%, Prachuap 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayong FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Prachuap's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rayong FC 1.16 PPG, Prachuap 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights