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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Rayong FC edge out Prachuap 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayong FC beat Prachuap 3-2 at WHA Rayong Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.17 xG and Prachuap 0.95 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Rayong FC beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Prachuap outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.12 against Prachuap attack 0.76 / defence 0.83, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 39% | Draw 32% | Prachuap 28%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 53%, Prachuap 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayong FC's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Prachuap's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Prachuap arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Rayong FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rayong FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights