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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Rayong FC run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Port FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayong FC beat Port FC 5-2 at Rayong Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.07 xG and Port FC 1.13 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Rayong FC beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Port FC outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.12 against Port FC attack 0.90 / defence 0.69, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 33% | Draw 32% | Port FC 36%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Rayong FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 60%, Port FC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayong FC's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Port FC's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Rayong FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rayong FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights