Rayong FC 1-3 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayong FC vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WHA Rayong Stadium plays host to Rayong FC versus Port FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 10 August 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Port FC (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Port FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Port FC's away record: 3W 7D 0L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 1.37 xG and Port FC 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Port FC attack 1.129 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.867 / away 1.324. Data: 0 Rayong FC games / 30 Port FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Rayong FC 30% | Draw 25% | Port FC 45%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Port FC 2.22. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayong FC vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: WHA Rayong Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayong FC 30% | Draw 25% | Port FC 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Rayong FC 1.37 / Port FC 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Rayong FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Port FC attack 1.129 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.867 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Port FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Rayong FC xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Port FC xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayong FC vs Port FC kick off?
Rayong FC vs Port FC kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at WHA Rayong Stadium.
What was the final score in Rayong FC vs Port FC?
Rayong FC 1 - 3 Port FC.
Where is Rayong FC vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at WHA Rayong Stadium.
What competition is Rayong FC vs Port FC part of?
Rayong FC vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Rayong FC vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Rayong FC a 30% chance of winning, Port FC a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayong FC vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Rayong FC and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Rayong FC vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Port FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rayong FC and Port FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Port FC (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rayong FC's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Port FC's attack (1.13x) against Rayong FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
30%
3.33
25%
4.00
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Rayong FC xG
Total xG
3.09
1.72
Port FC xG
3.33
30%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
18%
5.58
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
5%
18.57
11%
8.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.7 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayong FC vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Rayong FC and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Rayong FC and 1.72 for Port FC, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayong FC vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayong FC
Pre-Season
Port FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 4-1 on 30 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rayong FC have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Port FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Rayong FC
1
Draws
2
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Port FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Rayong FC have won 1, Port FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rayong FC and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Rayong FC 5-2 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Rayong FC and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayong FC home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Port FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Rayong FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Rayong FC 1-3 at WHA Rayong Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.37 xG and Port FC 1.72 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Port FC outscored their 1.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Port FC attack 1.13 / defence 0.87, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 30% | Draw 25% | Port FC 45%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.