🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Nakhon Ratchasima FC defy the odds to beat Rayong FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Rayong FC 1-2 at Rayong Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.91 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.25 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Rayong FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.05 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.06, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 51% | Draw 26% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 23%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Nakhon Ratchasima FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 68%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayong FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rayong FC 1.03 PPG, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nakhon Ratchasima FC win broke the near-deadlock. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights