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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rayong FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Muangthong United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayong FC beat Muangthong United 2-0 at Rayong Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.71 xG and Muangthong United 1.54 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Muangthong United landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.12 against Muangthong United attack 1.05 / defence 1.10, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 42% | Draw 24% | Muangthong United 35%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 67%, Muangthong United 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayong FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.

Muangthong United's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Muangthong United arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Rayong FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rayong FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights