Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayong FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Lamphun Warrior travel to Rayong Provincial Stadium to take on Rayong FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 30 October 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Rayong FC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Rayong FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rayong FC at Rayong Provincial Stadium this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Rayong FC are significantly better at Rayong Provincial Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Lamphun Warrior — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1W 7D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rayong FC 1.20 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rayong FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Lamphun Warrior in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Rayong FC have won 0, Lamphun Warrior 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Rayong FC trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 26% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Lamphun Warrior trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rayong FC 74% and Lamphun Warrior 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayong FC 52% | Lamphun Warrior 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 1.40 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 1.012 / defence 0.852 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.958 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.091. Data: 31 Rayong FC games / 31 Lamphun Warrior games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rayong FC 48% | Draw 29% | Lamphun Warrior 23%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Lamphun Warrior 4.35. Rayong FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rayong FC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayong FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Rayong FC 70% | Lamphun Warrior 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Rayong Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 30 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayong FC 48% | Draw 29% | Lamphun Warrior 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Rayong FC 1.40 / Lamphun Warrior 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Rayong FC attack 1.012 / def 0.852 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.958 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Rayong FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Rayong FC xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Lamphun Warrior xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Friday 30 October 2026 at Rayong Provincial Stadium.
Where is Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Rayong Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Rayong FC a 48% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rayong FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (4 meetings): Rayong FC 0W | Draws 2 | Lamphun Warrior 2W.
What form are Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior in?
Rayong FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rayong FC's attack rating (1.01) and Lamphun Warrior's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Rayong FC's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayong FC Win
48%
2.08
29%
3.50
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Rayong FC xG
Total xG
2.29
0.89
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
6%
17.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.6 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Rayong FC and 0.89 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, Rayong FC have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 10W 10D 11L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Rayong FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lamphun Warrior's form line: 4W 17D 10L from 31 games, 0.94 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rayong FC on 1.29 PPG, Lamphun Warrior on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rayong FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 15 outings (8W 6D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Rayong FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lamphun Warrior have gone 2W 7D 6L from 15 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayong FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rayong FC are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.16 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Lamphun Warrior in 68%.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayong FC
Early Season
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Rayong FC have gone 10W 10D 11L in their last 31 games (1.29 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 17D 10L in their last 31 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayong FC at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Rayong FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayong FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Sep 2024, when Lamphun Warrior won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rayong FC's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Rayong FC
2
Draws
2
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior?
From 4 meetings on record, Rayong FC have won 0, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Rayong FC 1-1 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Lamphun Warrior see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayong FC 67%, Lamphun Warrior 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Rayong FC) and 40% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Rayong FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Lamphun Warrior in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayong FC home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayong FC play Lamphun Warrior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Rayong FC's games and 60% of Lamphun Warrior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rayong FC vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Rayong FC's recent games and 40% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Rayong FC have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.