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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Lamphun Warrior edge out Rayong FC 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lamphun Warrior beat Rayong FC 2-3 at WHA Rayong Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.37 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.40 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.31 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.90 / defence 0.83, drawn from 21/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 36% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 37%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 62%, Lamphun Warrior 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayong FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rayong FC 1.05 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock. Rayong FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights