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Dominant Rayong FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Khon Kaen United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayong FC beat Khon Kaen United 4-0 at WHA Rayong Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 2.37 xG and Khon Kaen United 1.21 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Rayong FC beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Khon Kaen United landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.40 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.68 / defence 1.46, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 63% | Draw 20% | Khon Kaen United 18%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 64%, Khon Kaen United 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayong FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Khon Kaen United's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Rayong FC arrived the stronger side — 1.04 PPG against 0.54. That form edge translated into the three points. Rayong FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights