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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Rayong FC edge out Chonburi FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayong FC beat Chonburi FC 1-0 at Rayong Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.71 xG and Chonburi FC 0.94 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chonburi FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.94 against Chonburi FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.09, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 52% | Draw 30% | Chonburi FC 17%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 42%, Chonburi FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayong FC's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.

Chonburi FC's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Rayong FC arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Rayong FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights