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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rayong FC and BG Pathum United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at WHA Rayong Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Rayong FC and BG Pathum United drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.40 xG and BG Pathum United 1.43 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.11 against BG Pathum United attack 1.07 / defence 0.96, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 36% | Draw 27% | BG Pathum United 37%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 53%, BG Pathum United 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayong FC's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

BG Pathum United's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights