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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rayong FC and Bangkok United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayong FC and Bangkok United finished level at 1-1 at Rayong Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.38 xG and Bangkok United 0.79 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 1.18 / defence 0.95 against Bangkok United attack 0.80 / defence 0.77, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 48% | Draw 33% | Bangkok United 19%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 61%, Bangkok United 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayong FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

Bangkok United's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights