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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rayong FC and Ayutthaya FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayong FC and Ayutthaya FC finished level at 2-2 at Rayong Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.93 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.39 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.00 against Ayutthaya FC attack 1.20 / defence 1.21, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 49% | Draw 25% | Ayutthaya FC 26%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 50%, Ayutthaya FC 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 88%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayong FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rayong FC 1.00 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights