Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Sukhothai FC travel to Dragon Solar Park to take on Ratchaburi. The game is scheduled for Friday 9 October 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Dragon Solar Park, Ratchaburi have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sukhothai FC — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sukhothai FC away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Ratchaburi carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Ratchaburi, 3 for Sukhothai FC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Ratchaburi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ratchaburi trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Sukhothai FC trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 58% versus Sukhothai FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 55% | Sukhothai FC 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.78 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.146 / defence 1.001 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.865 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.091. Data: 31 Ratchaburi games / 31 Sukhothai FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 56% | Draw 24% | Sukhothai FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Sukhothai FC 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ratchaburi 70% | Sukhothai FC 20%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Friday 9 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 56% | Draw 24% | Sukhothai FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Ratchaburi 1.78 / Sukhothai FC 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.146 / def 1.001 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.865 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Sukhothai FC xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Friday 9 October 2026 at Dragon Solar Park.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 56% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC?
Record (8 meetings): Ratchaburi 3W | Draws 2 | Sukhothai FC 3W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ratchaburi's attack rating (1.15) and Sukhothai FC's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
56%
1.77
24%
4.11
19%
5.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.72
0.94
Sukhothai FC xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
5.19
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
3%
30.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.0 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.94 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ratchaburi's recent record stands at 18W 5D 8L from 31 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sukhothai FC, meanwhile, have gone 6W 10D 15L across 31 games — 0.90 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ratchaburi by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sukhothai FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ratchaburi have managed 8W 4D 3L from 15 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sukhothai FC's away record stands at 0W 4D 11L across 15 trips, a 0.27 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 0.77 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 18W 5D 8L in their last 31 games (1.90 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 6W 10D 15L in their last 31 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.87 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ratchaburi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Sukhothai FC specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Ratchaburi
2
Draws
3
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 3, Sukhothai FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Sukhothai FC 1-2 Ratchaburi.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 53%, Sukhothai FC 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Ratchaburi) and 27% (Sukhothai FC).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sukhothai FC in 73%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Sukhothai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 27% of Sukhothai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 27% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.