Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 17 as Ratchaburi welcome Rayong FC to Dragon Solar Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 12 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi's home record at Dragon Solar Park: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rayong FC stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Rayong FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rayong FC's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Ratchaburi carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Ratchaburi hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for Rayong FC, with 1 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Ratchaburi and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Ratchaburi in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Rayong FC in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ratchaburi 58% and Rayong FC 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 52% | Rayong FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.79 xG and Rayong FC 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.114 / defence 0.852 | Rayong FC attack 1.178 / defence 1.263. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.228. Rayong FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.263 — this is suppressing Ratchaburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Ratchaburi games / 32 Rayong FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 50% | Draw 23% | Rayong FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Rayong FC 3.85. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 70% | Rayong FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Friday 12 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 50% | Draw 23% | Rayong FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Ratchaburi 1.79 / Rayong FC 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.114 / def 0.852 | Rayong FC attack 1.178 / def 1.263 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Rayong FC xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Friday 12 February 2027 at Dragon Solar Park.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC part of?
Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 50% chance of winning, Rayong FC a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Ratchaburi and Rayong FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Rayong FC?
Record (5 meetings): Ratchaburi 4W | Draws 1 | Rayong FC 0W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Rayong FC in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Rayong FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ratchaburi's attack rating (1.11) and Rayong FC's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rayong FC's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
50%
1.98
23%
4.31
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
3.02
1.23
Rayong FC xG
1.98
50%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
17%
5.98
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
4%
22.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.7 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Rayong FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.23 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 33 outings, Ratchaburi have picked up 1.91 PPG on a 19W 6D 8L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rayong FC's form line: 11W 11D 11L from 33 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Rayong FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Ratchaburi are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rayong FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ratchaburi have posted 1.94 PPG from 16 outings (9W 4D 3L).
On the road, Rayong FC have gone 3W 4D 9L from 16 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rayong FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Rayong FC are on 1.48 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC in 76%.
Last 33 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Rayong FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Rayong FC in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 19W 6D 8L in their last 33 games (1.91 PPG), while Rayong FC have gone 11W 11D 11L in their last 33 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Rayong FC away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.94 PPG; Rayong FC away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Rayong FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Rayong FC in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ratchaburi and Rayong FC runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2026, when Ratchaburi won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Rayong FC specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
1
Draws
0
Rayong FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Rayong FC?
From 5 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 4, Rayong FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Rayong FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Rayong FC 1-1 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Rayong FC?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ratchaburi at 50%, Rayong FC at 81%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Ratchaburi) and 62% (Rayong FC).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Rayong FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Rayong FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ratchaburi's games and 81% of Rayong FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 62% of Rayong FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Rayong FC tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Rayong FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.