Ratchaburi vs Prachuap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ratchaburi host Prachuap at Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 November 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Ratchaburi — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ratchaburi have posted 7W 2D 1L at Dragon Solar Park — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Prachuap stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Prachuap have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Ratchaburi) versus 2.10 (Prachuap). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Ratchaburi, 4 for Prachuap and 2 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ratchaburi trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Prachuap trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 57% versus Prachuap 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 54% | Prachuap 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.94 xG and Prachuap 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.486 / defence 0.766 | Prachuap attack 1.088 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.284. Ratchaburi carry an above-average attack strength of 1.486 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ratchaburi's defence rating of 0.766 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Ratchaburi games / 35 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 57% | Draw 23% | Prachuap 20%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Prachuap 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 60% | Prachuap 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 57% | Draw 23% | Prachuap 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Ratchaburi 1.94 / Prachuap 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.486 / def 0.766 | Prachuap attack 1.088 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Prachuap xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Prachuap kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Prachuap is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Dragon Solar Park.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Prachuap part of?
Ratchaburi vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 57% chance of winning, Prachuap a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ratchaburi and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Prachuap?
Record (10 meetings): Ratchaburi 4W | Draws 2 | Prachuap 4W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Prachuap in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Prachuap (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ratchaburi's attack at 1.49x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
57%
1.75
23%
4.34
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
3.01
1.07
Prachuap xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
14%
6.99
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
3%
35.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.2 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.07 for Prachuap, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ratchaburi come into this having played 35 games, going 21W 6D 8L for 1.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Prachuap sit at 1.63 PPG from 35 outings (15W 12D 8L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ratchaburi on 1.97 PPG, Prachuap on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ratchaburi's home form reads 10W 4D 3L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Prachuap have taken 1.24 points per game from 17 outings (5W 6D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.34 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Prachuap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 21W 6D 8L in their last 35 games (1.97 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 15W 12D 8L in their last 35 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Prachuap away?
Ratchaburi's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 2.00 PPG; Prachuap away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Prachuap in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2022, when Ratchaburi won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
2
Draws
4
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Prachuap?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 4, Prachuap have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Ratchaburi 1-1 Prachuap.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 47%, Prachuap 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Ratchaburi) and 53% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Prachuap in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Prachuap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 53% of Prachuap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 53% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Prachuap tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.