🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ratchaburi vs Prachuap encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Ratchaburi host Prachuap at Ratchaburi Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 March 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Ratchaburi — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Ratchaburi have posted 7W 3D 0L at Ratchaburi Stadium — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ratchaburi Stadium.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Prachuap stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Prachuap have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Ratchaburi carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Ratchaburi, 3 for Prachuap and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 2–3 with Prachuap winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Ratchaburi trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).

Prachuap trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 51% versus Prachuap 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 53% | Prachuap 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 2.00 xG and Prachuap 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.119 / defence 0.830 | Prachuap attack 1.006 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.132. Data: 55 Ratchaburi games / 55 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 62% | Draw 21% | Prachuap 17%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Prachuap 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Ratchaburi 40% | Prachuap 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights