🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Port FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ratchaburi beat Port FC 1-0 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.47 xG and Port FC 1.15 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Port FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.01 / defence 0.99 against Port FC attack 0.87 / defence 0.94, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 44% | Draw 27% | Port FC 29%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 58%, Port FC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ratchaburi's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Port FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.79 PPG, Port FC 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights