Ratchaburi vs Pattani – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Pattani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dragon Solar Park plays host to Ratchaburi versus Pattani in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 20 December 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi at Dragon Solar Park this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pattani (all games): 1W 1D 0L across 2 Thai League 1 outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Ratchaburi, 2.00 for Pattani — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.60 xG and Pattani 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.101 / defence 0.867 | Pattani attack 1.000 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.133. Data: 32 Ratchaburi games / 2 Pattani games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 52% | Draw 25% | Pattani 23%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Pattani 4.35. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Pattani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Dec 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 52% | Draw 25% | Pattani 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Ratchaburi 1.60 / Pattani 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.101 / def 0.867 | Pattani attack 1.000 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Pattani xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Pattani kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Pattani is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Sunday 20 December 2026 at Dragon Solar Park.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Pattani being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Pattani part of?
Ratchaburi vs Pattani is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Pattani?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 52% chance of winning, Pattani a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Pattani?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ratchaburi and Pattani will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Pattani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Pattani?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ratchaburi and Pattani in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Pattani (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Pattani's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — Pattani's attack (1.00x) against Ratchaburi's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
The sample (32/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
52%
1.93
25%
4.00
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.58
0.98
Pattani xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
5%
21.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.9 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Pattani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Pattani expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.98 for Pattani, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Pattani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ratchaburi come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pattani sit at 2.00 PPG from 2 outings (1W 1D 0L), a run that reads D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pattani carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Pattani are on 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Pattani in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Pattani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Pattani in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Pattani have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Ratchaburi or Pattani been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Pattani in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Pattani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Pattani?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 50% of Pattani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Pattani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 50% of Pattani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Pattani tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pattani in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.