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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Ratchaburi run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Nong Bua Pitchaya.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ratchaburi beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 4-0 at Ratchaburi Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 2.05 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.72 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Ratchaburi beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.01 / defence 0.86 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.69 / defence 1.27, drawn from 53/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 68% | Draw 20% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 12%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 54%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ratchaburi's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights