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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Muangthong United 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ratchaburi beat Muangthong United 3-2 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.47 xG and Muangthong United 0.70 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ratchaburi beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Muangthong United outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.80 / defence 0.75 against Muangthong United attack 0.89 / defence 1.16, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 56% | Draw 27% | Muangthong United 18%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 54%, Muangthong United 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ratchaburi's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Muangthong United's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Muangthong United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights