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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Muangthong United 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ratchaburi beat Muangthong United 1-0 at Ratchaburi Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.59 xG and Muangthong United 1.39 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Muangthong United landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.10 / defence 0.95 against Muangthong United attack 1.26 / defence 0.87, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 41% | Draw 27% | Muangthong United 32%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 54%, Muangthong United 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ratchaburi's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Muangthong United's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.39 PPG, Muangthong United 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights