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Poisson model favours Ratchaburi (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ratchaburi face Lamphun Warrior.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior meet at Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 May 2027 at 11:00 UTC.

Current Form

Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Ratchaburi haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Ratchaburi at Dragon Solar Park this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Lamphun Warrior have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 7D 2L. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lamphun Warrior haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Lamphun Warrior away from home this season: 1W 7D 2L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. Ratchaburi's 2.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Lamphun Warrior's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ratchaburi have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Lamphun Warrior in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record favours Ratchaburi, who have won 4 of the last 8 meetings against Lamphun Warrior — a 3D 1W return for the visitors.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Ratchaburi winning.

The historical record gives Ratchaburi a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ratchaburi 57% and Lamphun Warrior 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 53% | Lamphun Warrior 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.67 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.140 / defence 1.023 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.947 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.019. Data: 30 Ratchaburi games / 30 Lamphun Warrior games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 51% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 20%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Lamphun Warrior 5.00. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 70% | Lamphun Warrior 60% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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