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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Ratchaburi Stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Ratchaburi and Lamphun Warrior drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.42 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.86 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.99 / defence 0.83 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.88 / defence 0.81, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 49% | Draw 30% | Lamphun Warrior 21%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 53%, Lamphun Warrior 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ratchaburi's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.39 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights