Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Ratchaburi welcome Chiangrai United to Dragon Solar Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ratchaburi have posted 6W 2D 2L at Dragon Solar Park — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Chiangrai United — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Chiangrai United have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Ratchaburi carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Ratchaburi, 4 for Chiangrai United and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 10 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Chiangrai United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Ratchaburi trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Chiangrai United trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 58% versus Chiangrai United 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 52% | Chiangrai United 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.37 xG and Chiangrai United 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.109 / defence 0.856 | Chiangrai United attack 0.988 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.221. Data: 33 Ratchaburi games / 33 Chiangrai United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 44% | Draw 27% | Chiangrai United 28%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Chiangrai United 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Ratchaburi 70% | Chiangrai United 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 44% | Draw 27% | Chiangrai United 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Ratchaburi 1.37 / Chiangrai United 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.109 / def 0.856 | Chiangrai United attack 0.988 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Chiangrai United xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at Dragon Solar Park.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United part of?
Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 44% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United?
Record (10 meetings): Ratchaburi 3W | Draws 3 | Chiangrai United 4W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Chiangrai United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ratchaburi's attack at 1.11x the league average against Chiangrai United's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
44%
2.25
27%
3.68
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.40
1.03
Chiangrai United xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
7%
13.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.03 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ratchaburi's recent record stands at 19W 6D 8L from 33 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chiangrai United, meanwhile, have gone 10W 14D 9L across 33 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-W-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ratchaburi by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chiangrai United heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ratchaburi have managed 9W 4D 3L from 16 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chiangrai United's away record stands at 2W 11D 3L across 16 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.15 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United in 61%.
Last 33 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Chiangrai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 19W 6D 8L in their last 33 games (1.91 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 10W 14D 9L in their last 33 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Chiangrai United away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.94 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Chiangrai United have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2023, when Ratchaburi won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ratchaburi
3
Draws
4
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 3, Chiangrai United have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-0 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ratchaburi at 50%, Chiangrai United at 88%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Ratchaburi) and 38% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Chiangrai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ratchaburi's games and 88% of Chiangrai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 38% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.