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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Chiangrai United defy the odds to beat Ratchaburi 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chiangrai United beat Ratchaburi 1-2 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.23 xG and Chiangrai United 0.80 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Chiangrai United outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.97 / defence 0.71 against Chiangrai United attack 0.93 / defence 0.81, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 44% | Draw 35% | Chiangrai United 21%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Chiangrai United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 54%, Chiangrai United 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ratchaburi's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Chiangrai United's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Chiangrai United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights