🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Ratchaburi defy the odds to beat Buriram United 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ratchaburi beat Buriram United 3-2 at Ratchaburi Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.37 xG and Buriram United 1.68 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ratchaburi beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.16 / defence 0.95 against Buriram United attack 1.39 / defence 0.71, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 31% | Draw 25% | Buriram United 44%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Ratchaburi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 55%, Buriram United 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ratchaburi's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Buriram United's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.47. Form was overturned, with Ratchaburi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Buriram United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights