🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Bangkok United defy the odds to beat Ratchaburi 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bangkok United beat Ratchaburi 0-1 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.43 xG and Bangkok United 1.34 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ratchaburi fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.96 / defence 0.90 against Bangkok United attack 1.23 / defence 0.97, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 37% | Draw 31% | Bangkok United 33%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Bangkok United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 57%, Bangkok United 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ratchaburi's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Bangkok United's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.86 PPG, Bangkok United 2.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bangkok United win broke the near-deadlock. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Bangkok United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights