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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Bangkok United defy the odds to beat Ratchaburi 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bangkok United beat Ratchaburi 1-2 at Ratchaburi Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.36 xG and Bangkok United 1.24 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.17 / defence 0.90 against Bangkok United attack 1.14 / defence 0.69, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 39% | Draw 27% | Bangkok United 34%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Bangkok United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 54%, Bangkok United 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ratchaburi's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Bangkok United's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.46. Form held, and they took the win. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights