Ratchaburi 1-2 Bangkok United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ratchaburi and Bangkok United meet at Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 4 April 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi's home record at Dragon Solar Park: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Ratchaburi are significantly better at Dragon Solar Park than their overall form suggests.
Bangkok United (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bangkok United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bangkok United's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Ratchaburi 1W, Bangkok United 3W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 1–3 with Bangkok United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Ratchaburi half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Bangkok United half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 47% versus Bangkok United 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ratchaburi 31% | Bangkok United 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.11 xG and Bangkok United 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.927 / defence 0.724 | Bangkok United attack 1.117 / defence 0.661. League average goals — home 1.813 / away 1.132. Bangkok United's defence strength of 0.661 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Ratchaburi's defence rating of 0.724 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Ratchaburi games / 51 Bangkok United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 38% | Draw 34% | Bangkok United 28%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Bangkok United 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 50% | Bangkok United 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Thursday 4 Apr 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 38% | Draw 34% | Bangkok United 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Ratchaburi 1.11 / Bangkok United 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.927 / def 0.724 | Bangkok United attack 1.117 / def 0.661 | league avg home 1.813 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Bangkok United xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United kicked off at 12:00 on Thursday 4 April 2024 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United?
Ratchaburi 1 - 2 Bangkok United.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United part of?
Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 38% chance of winning, Bangkok United a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Ratchaburi and Bangkok United will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Bangkok United?
Record (5 meetings): Ratchaburi 1W | Draws 1 | Bangkok United 3W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Bangkok United in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Bangkok United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Bangkok United's defensive record (0.66x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Bangkok United's attack (1.12x) against Ratchaburi's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
38%
2.64
34%
2.91
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.03
0.92
Bangkok United xG
2.64
38%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
15%
6.60
9%
10.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 12.1 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Bangkok United expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.92 for Bangkok United, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, Ratchaburi have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 18W 16D 17L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bangkok United's form line: 32W 11D 8L from 51 games, 2.10 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-W. The sample for Bangkok United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bangkok United are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ratchaburi.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ratchaburi have posted 1.78 PPG from 23 outings (11W 8D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — Ratchaburi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bangkok United have gone 12W 6D 5L from 23 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Bangkok United are on 1.86 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: Bangkok United in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Bangkok United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Bangkok United in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 18W 16D 17L in their last 51 games (1.37 PPG), while Bangkok United have gone 32W 11D 8L in their last 51 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Bangkok United away?
Bangkok United's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.78 PPG; Bangkok United away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Bangkok United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Bangkok United in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ratchaburi won 1-4 on 18 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ratchaburi have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bangkok United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Ratchaburi
2
Draws
6
Bangkok United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Bangkok United?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 2, Bangkok United have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Bangkok United last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Bangkok United 1-4 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Bangkok United?
Bangkok United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Bangkok United see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 56%, Bangkok United 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Ratchaburi and 39% for Bangkok United.
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Bangkok United in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Bangkok United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Bangkok United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 48% of Bangkok United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Bangkok United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 39% of Bangkok United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Bangkok United tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Bangkok United in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bangkok United defy the odds to beat Ratchaburi 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bangkok United beat Ratchaburi 1-2 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.11 xG and Bangkok United 0.92 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bangkok United outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.93 / defence 0.72 against Bangkok United attack 1.12 / defence 0.66, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 38% | Draw 34% | Bangkok United 28%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Bangkok United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 31%, Bangkok United 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (51 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Bangkok United's trading profile (51 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bangkok United arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.37. Form held, and they took the win. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.