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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ratchaburi vs Ayutthaya FC encounter.

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Match Analysis

Ratchaburi host Ayutthaya FC at Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 May 2027 at 11:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Ratchaburi — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Ratchaburi haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at Dragon Solar Park, Ratchaburi have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Ayutthaya FC stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Ayutthaya FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

On current form, Ratchaburi have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ratchaburi, 1 for Ayutthaya FC and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with Ayutthaya FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Ratchaburi in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Ayutthaya FC in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 57% versus Ayutthaya FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 53% | Ayutthaya FC 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.82 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.139 / defence 1.023 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.989 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.019. Data: 30 Ratchaburi games / 30 Ayutthaya FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 54% | Draw 27% | Ayutthaya FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Ayutthaya FC 5.26. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 70% | Ayutthaya FC 40% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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