Prachuap vs Uthai Thani – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Prachuap at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Prachuap vs Uthai Thani encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Prachuap welcome Uthai Thani to Sam Ao Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 December 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Prachuap's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Sam Ao Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sam Ao Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Uthai Thani stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Uthai Thani have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Prachuap have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Prachuap have won 2, Uthai Thani 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 2–0 with Prachuap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Prachuap trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Uthai Thani trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 47% versus Uthai Thani 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 38% | Uthai Thani 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.40 xG and Uthai Thani 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.055 / defence 0.921 | Uthai Thani attack 1.233 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.133. Uthai Thani have an above-average attack strength of 1.233 — the away xG of 1.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 31 Prachuap games / 32 Uthai Thani games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Prachuap 40% | Draw 26% | Uthai Thani 34%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Uthai Thani 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Prachuap as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Prachuap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Prachuap 40% | Uthai Thani 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Dec 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 40% | Draw 26% | Uthai Thani 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Prachuap 1.40 / Uthai Thani 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.055 / def 0.921 | Uthai Thani attack 1.233 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Uthai Thani xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Prachuap vs Uthai Thani is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 19 December 2026 at Sam Ao Stadium.
Where is Prachuap vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Uthai Thani part of?
Prachuap vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 40% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Prachuap and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Uthai Thani?
Record (6 meetings): Prachuap 2W | Draws 1 | Uthai Thani 3W.
What form are Prachuap and Uthai Thani in?
Prachuap (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Uthai Thani (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Prachuap's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Uthai Thani's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Uthai Thani's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
40%
2.51
26%
3.87
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.69
1.29
Uthai Thani xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
11%
9.10
8%
11.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.3 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.29 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Prachuap come into this having played 32 games, going 12W 12D 8L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Uthai Thani sit at 1.06 PPG from 32 outings (8W 10D 14L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Prachuap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Prachuap's home form reads 9W 6D 1L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Uthai Thani have taken 0.88 points per game from 16 outings (3W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.38 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani in 62%.
Last 32 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Early Season
Uthai Thani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 12W 12D 8L in their last 32 games (1.50 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 8W 10D 14L in their last 32 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Uthai Thani away?
Prachuap's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 2.06 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Uthai Thani been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Uthai Thani in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Uthai Thani runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Dec 2025, when Uthai Thani won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Prachuap's record when hosting Uthai Thani specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Prachuap
1
Draws
3
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Uthai Thani?
From 6 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 2, Uthai Thani have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Prachuap 2-0 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Uthai Thani?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 38%, Uthai Thani 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Prachuap) and 50% (Uthai Thani).
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Uthai Thani in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Uthai Thani?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Prachuap's recent matches and 62% of Uthai Thani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Prachuap's recent games and 50% of Uthai Thani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.