Prachuap 3-0 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Prachuap at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 11 as Prachuap welcome Uthai Thani to Sam Ao Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 October 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Sam Ao Stadium this term (2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sam Ao Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Prachuap are significantly better at Sam Ao Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Uthai Thani stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Uthai Thani have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Prachuap at 1.30 PPG versus Uthai Thani's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Prachuap have won 0, Uthai Thani 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Prachuap trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Uthai Thani trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 55% versus Uthai Thani 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 45% | Uthai Thani 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.38 xG and Uthai Thani 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.006 / defence 0.725 | Uthai Thani attack 0.946 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.122. Prachuap's defence rating of 0.725 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Prachuap games / 40 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 48% | Draw 34% | Uthai Thani 18%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.08 | Draw 2.94 | Uthai Thani 5.56. Prachuap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Prachuap as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Prachuap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 30% | Uthai Thani 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 48% | Draw 34% | Uthai Thani 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Prachuap 1.38 / Uthai Thani 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.006 / def 0.725 | Uthai Thani attack 0.946 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Uthai Thani xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Prachuap vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Uthai Thani?
Prachuap 3 - 0 Uthai Thani.
Where is Prachuap vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Uthai Thani part of?
Prachuap vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 48% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 18% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Prachuap and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Uthai Thani?
Record (2 meetings): Prachuap 0W | Draws 1 | Uthai Thani 1W.
What form are Prachuap and Uthai Thani in?
Prachuap (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Uthai Thani (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Prachuap vs Uthai Thani?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Prachuap's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Uthai Thani's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Uthai Thani's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
48%
2.07
34%
2.96
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.14
0.77
Uthai Thani xG
2.07
48%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
5%
21.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 12.4 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Prachuap and 0.77 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Prachuap come into this having played 40 games, going 11W 14D 15L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-D. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Uthai Thani sit at 1.25 PPG from 40 outings (13W 11D 16L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Prachuap on 1.18 PPG, Uthai Thani on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Prachuap's home form reads 11W 5D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Uthai Thani have taken 1.25 points per game from 20 outings (7W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.32 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Uthai Thani
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 11W 14D 15L in their last 40 games (1.18 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 13W 11D 16L in their last 40 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Uthai Thani away?
Prachuap's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.90 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Uthai Thani runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Dec 2025, when Uthai Thani won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Prachuap's record when hosting Uthai Thani specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Prachuap
1
Draws
3
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Uthai Thani?
From 6 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 2, Uthai Thani have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Prachuap 2-0 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Uthai Thani?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 50%, Uthai Thani 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Prachuap) and 55% (Uthai Thani).
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Uthai Thani in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Uthai Thani?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Prachuap's recent matches and 50% of Uthai Thani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Prachuap's recent games and 55% of Uthai Thani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Prachuap run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Uthai Thani.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Uthai Thani 3-0 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.38 xG and Uthai Thani 0.77 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Prachuap beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.01 / defence 0.72 against Uthai Thani attack 0.95 / defence 0.80, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 48% | Draw 34% | Uthai Thani 18%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 45%, Uthai Thani 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.18 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.