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Stalemate at Prachuap's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Prachuap and Sukhothai FC drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.81 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.30 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Prachuap fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Sukhothai FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.10 / defence 1.05 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.87 / defence 0.99, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Prachuap 48% | Draw 25% | Sukhothai FC 26%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 56%, Sukhothai FC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Prachuap's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.41 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights