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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prachuap cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rayong FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Prachuap beat Rayong FC 2-0 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.52 xG and Rayong FC 1.22 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Rayong FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.07 / defence 1.05 against Rayong FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.94, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Prachuap 42% | Draw 29% | Rayong FC 29%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 45%, Rayong FC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Prachuap's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Rayong FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.41 PPG, Rayong FC 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock. Prachuap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Rayong FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights